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HISTORY^ ANl5    HUMAN    RELATIONS

if it had not been for the curious interlude of some
thirty years from 1914. And one thing we can say in
advance even concerning our successors: we can tfe
certain that historians will ask whether it was during
tharinterlude, or during the periods before and after,
that Englishmen slipped into a little day-dreaming.

It does not appear to be the case that even in 1914
we revised our basic calculations concerning the mag-
nitude of Russia's power, whether as it existed at that
time or as it seemed likely to become in the future. It
is anachronistic to hold that at that time we regarded
the Triple Alliance as stronger than our Triple Entente,
for we made bad miscalculations even in those days, and
we had had a growing feeling that the Entente was the
stronger and was increasing its lead. To a dispatch
of 18 July, 1914, announcing that by the winter of
1916 Russia would " possess an active army greater in
numbers than the joint forces of the Triple Alliance
Powers" and stating that" the Russian Navy estimates
now exceed the British ones ", Sir Arthur Nicolson,
Permanent Under-Secretary of State, appended a minute,
not deprecating the report in any way, but saying:
" Russia is a formidable Power and will become increas-
ingly strong. Let us hope our relations with her will
continue to be friendly ". On i May, 1914, Sir Edward
Grey told Poincare' that, if ever Germany attacked Russia,

people in Great Britain would be inclined to say that,
though Germany might have successes at first, Russia's
resources were so great that, in the long run, Germany
would be exhausted without our helping Russia.                  ,

When the last volumes of the British Documents were

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